Teaching Kids to Cook

July 3, 2009

Outside Berkeley Whole Foods I encountered this cooking camp in session — they teach kids 8-12 years old to cook in two-week sessions, 4 hours/day. I love the idea. I think childhood obesity is due to eating ditto foods (foods, usually factory-made, that taste exactly the same each time) — teaching someone how to cook is a good way to reduce that.

I asked if they included any fermented foods in the curriculum. “Tomorrow we’re making tofu,” said one of the counselors — a Nutrition major at UC Berkeley.  Tofu is not a fermented food, I said. She wasn’t sure what a fermented food was.

How Much Should We Trust Clinical Trials?

July 2, 2009

Suppose you ask several experts how to choose a good car. Their answers reveal they don’t know how to drive. What should you conclude? Suppose these experts build cars. Should we trust the cars they’ve built?

Gina Kolata writes that “experts agree that there are three basic principles that underlie the search for medical truth and the use of clinical trials to obtain it.” Kolata’s “three basic principles” reveal that her experts don’t understand experimentation.

Principle 1.  “It is important to compare like with like. The groups you are comparing must be the same except for one factor — the one you are studying. For example, you should compare beta carotene users with people who are exactly like the beta carotene users except that they don’t take the supplement.” An expert told her this. This — careful equation of two groups — is not how experiments are done. What is done is random assignment, which roughly (but not perfectly) equates the groups on pre-experimental characteristics. A more subtle point is that the X versus No X design is worse than a design that compares different dosages of X. The latter design makes it less likely that control subjects will get upset because they didn’t get X and makes the two groups more equal.

Principle 2. “The bigger the group studied, the more reliable the conclusions.” Again, this is not what happens. No one with statistical understanding judges the reliability of an effect by the size of the experiment; they judge it by the p value (which takes account of sample size). The more subtle point is that the smaller the sample size, the stronger the effect must be to get reliable results. Researchers try to conserve resources so they try to keep experiments as small as possible. Small experiments with reliable results are more impressive than large experiments with equally reliable results — because the effect must be stronger. This is basically the opposite of what Kolata says.

Principle 3. In the words of Kolata’s expert, it’s “Bayes theorem”. He means consider other evidence — evidence from other studies. This is not only banal, it is meaningless. It is unclear — at least from what Kolata writes — how to weigh the various sources of evidences (what if the other evidence and the clinical trials disagree?).

Kolata also quotes David Freedman, a Berkeley professor of statistics who knew the cost of everything and the value of nothing. Perhaps it starts in medical school. As I blogged, working scientists, who have a clue, don’t want to teach medical students how to do research.

If this is the level of understanding of the people who do clinical trials, how much should we trust them? Presumably Kolata’s experts were better than average — a scary thought.

Fermented Art, Beijing Style

July 2, 2009

From Time Out Beijing:

Veteran Beijing artist Gu Dexin . . . first turned European noses at a satellite show of the Venice Biennale in 1995, when he dumped three hundred kilos of raw beef into three glass coffins set in a local casino.

In the heat of summer, poisonous gases from the rotting meat quickly forced officials to clean up the show. This shy enfant terrible of the art world went on to astound European audiences in a succession of shows, placing raw meat or fruit in public places and letting them rot.

Up until this year, when he installed raw pork at the Legation Quarter, the formula has served him brilliantly. Part of the force of this current show is the absence of decay – resulting in a sterile and odourless silence.

Michael Bailey on Michael Jackson’s Sexuality

July 1, 2009

The Man Who Would Be Queen by Michael Bailey, a professor of psychology at Northwestern, isn’t just the best book about psychology I have ever read, it is one of the best books about anything I have ever read, right up there with Totto-Chan by Tetsuko Kuroyanagi and The Economy of Cities by Jane Jacobs.

Now Bailey has written a brilliant analysis of Michael Jackson’s sexuality. Bailey writes:

Jackson’s weirdness was so multifaceted that it presents both a challenge and an opportunity. . . . I propose an explanation of Michael Jackson that, if true, can explain several seemingly unrelated things:  the molestation accusations and interest in children, the obsession with Peter Pan, and the facial surgeries.

Plus the high-pitched voice. This is a basic point about causal inference not widely appreciated: If several rare things might have the same explanation, they probably do. Bailey’s conclusion is that Jackson had a very rare sexual identity disorder: He was sexually aroused by thinking of himself as a barely pubescent boy, just as a tiny number of men are sexually aroused by thinking of themselves as amputees (and these men try to become amputees) and a larger number of men are sexually aroused by thinking of themselves as a woman (and these men often have sex-change operations).

His facial surgeries made Jackson look unlike anyone else:

Normal people would hate to look like Michael Jackson did near the end of his life, and so normal people tend to assume that the surgeries were a series of big, compounded mistakes that Jackson must have regretted. Bad plastic surgery surely happens. But when it does, it is generally recognizable as a poor rendition of an aesthetically pleasing goal. Not so Michael Jackson’s face, which resembled nothing in the actual human, living world. Moreover, it has seemed to me that there was something coherent about the redesign of his face . . . If so, the 13 surgeries may be explained by something other than 13 different errors of judgment. . .

The face and the voice were both unnatural, and he went to a lot of trouble to have them. What was he trying to say and show with them? He told us, quite directly, the most likely answer.

“I am Peter Pan,” he said, more than once. He lived in Neverland. His second wife, Debbie Rowe, said that in order to get in the mood to have sex with her, Jackson dressed up as Peter Pan and danced around the bedroom. She said: “It made him feel romantic.”

Peter Pan, in the Disney version that Jackson knew, was a barely pubescent boy.

I wonder if diversity of sexual orientation persists because it produces diversity of occupation. People who enjoy unusual jobs have an advantage (less competition). Homosexual men probably have fewer children than heterosexual men — but what if homosexual men had an occupational advantage? Then they could make more money (or whatever) and their children would be better off. This would explain the persistence of homosexuality. Jackson, of course, was a huge occupational success. Bailey says a little about this:

Does my theory say anything about the origins of Michael Jackson’s tremendous talent? There are some correlations between sexuality and [occupational] abilities. For example, gay men are vastly overrepresented among professional dancers and fashion designers. This may reflect their increased interest in and dedication to dance and fashion, rather than natural talent per se. Autogynephiles [men sexually aroused by thinking of themselves as a woman] tend to be gifted in technical, mathematical, and scientific pursuits, with computer scientist being the prototypic autogynephilic occupation. But we don’t really know anything about the occupational interests of hebephiles [men attracted to barely pubescent boys], much less autohebephiles.

The Trip of 100 Pounds Lost: How Did it Begin?

June 30, 2009

Someone named August posted today on the SLD forums that he’d lost 100 pounds:

The scale dipped to 185 a bit unexpectedly this weekend. [He is 6′ 3″.] Well, that was my target.  Now what?

100lbs down.

Anticlimatic really.  The last three pounds just disappeared overnight.

And I can still stand to lose more, despite having people telling me I shouldn’t lose anymore since last year.

Since he has posted many times, and has been so successful, I think there is a lot to be learned here. Here is some of what he learned along the way.

Are your habits getting in the way?

I had a similar slow start with SLD too.  It wasn’t until I realized my habits kept me eating far more than I needed to that I started losing significant amounts of weight.

Bananas: good or bad?

I used to eat bananas everyday for potassium, but within an hour, I’d be really hungry.  One day I brought brisket I cooked overnight and I didn’t want to put it in the fridge, so I had it when I usually had my banana.  I didn’t think about food again until it was almost time to go home and I realized I hadn’t eaten anything else!

What about sweeteners?

I drink a lot of coffee, and when I decided to drop the sweeteners and take it black, the temptation to eat wheat products practically disappeared.

What about patience?

I began in a very low key way.  I simply started trying sugar water, then different oils, and for a while it didn’t seem like it would work.  Then one day Seth linked to the guy who ate protein nose clipped.  I decided to get a nose clip and try that for a while.  It worked in a borderline way, in other words it was effective enough to keep me doing it, but I wasn’t losing very much weight at the time.  Eventually, I ended up taking two tablespoons of walnut oil in the morning everyday.

The AS was enough for me to realize I was always eating more than I needed.  I’d dig into something and then realize I didn’t need to finish it.  My life was built around food.  I love to cook and I live by myself, so that means way too many calories in one place.  As I started to recognize this, I began to wonder how to change this.

Then on Good Friday I did a fast.  I decided that if I started to feel bad, I’d just take some oil.  It worked very well.  I realized I could get by with very little food.

Thanks to Heidi.