Comments on: Fannie Mae and The Black Swan http://www.blog.sethroberts.net/2008/07/12/fannie-mae-and-the-black-swan/ Self-Experimentation, Scientific Method, the Shangri-La Diet, etc. Sat, 20 Mar 2010 11:43:56 +0000 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.0.7 by: Fannie Mae http://www.blog.sethroberts.net/2008/07/12/fannie-mae-and-the-black-swan/#comment-377277 Fri, 01 Jan 2010 00:53:08 +0000 http://www.blog.sethroberts.net/2008/07/12/fannie-mae-and-the-black-swan/#comment-377277 Seth’s blog » Blog Archive » Fannie Mae and The Black Swan was very interesting while I was researching fannie mae for our next generation game. We wanted to created an up to the minute version of Bailout! The Game. Seth’s blog » Blog Archive » Fannie Mae and The Black Swan was very interesting while I was researching fannie mae for our next generation game. We wanted to created an up to the minute version of Bailout! The Game.

]]> by: J. Joseph http://www.blog.sethroberts.net/2008/07/12/fannie-mae-and-the-black-swan/#comment-343292 Tue, 15 Sep 2009 10:25:45 +0000 http://www.blog.sethroberts.net/2008/07/12/fannie-mae-and-the-black-swan/#comment-343292 Gaussian distribution talks only about the probability of occurrence of events. Nicholas Nassim Taleb talks about the impact of the occurrence of improbable events. Probability of occurrence and impact of occurrence are different. It seems Taleb inadvertently or deliberately wrote his book as if they are the same. Gaussian distribution talks only about the probability of occurrence of events. Nicholas Nassim Taleb talks about the impact of the occurrence of improbable events. Probability of occurrence and impact of occurrence are different. It seems Taleb inadvertently or deliberately wrote his book as if they are the same.

]]> by: J. Joseph http://www.blog.sethroberts.net/2008/07/12/fannie-mae-and-the-black-swan/#comment-342215 Fri, 11 Sep 2009 11:55:26 +0000 http://www.blog.sethroberts.net/2008/07/12/fannie-mae-and-the-black-swan/#comment-342215 With regard to Fannie Mae, I would say NNT turned out to be a prophet. Whether he is a polite prophet, I am not sure. I found the first hundred pages of Black Swan rather uninspiring, but liked it as I gained momentum. The digressions in his book are heavier than the main story. And he deliberately used polemics, which I don't believe is his true nature, but more of a marketing ploy. That he was rather concerned about sales is evident from the many references to book sales in Black Swan. But in the end we must appreciate him for the counter-intuitive insights presented in his book. With regard to Fannie Mae, I would say NNT turned out to be a prophet. Whether he is a polite prophet, I am not sure. I found the first hundred pages of Black Swan rather uninspiring, but liked it as I gained momentum. The digressions in his book are heavier than the main story. And he deliberately used polemics, which I don’t believe is his true nature, but more of a marketing ploy. That he was rather concerned about sales is evident from the many references to book sales in Black Swan. But in the end we must appreciate him for the counter-intuitive insights presented in his book.

]]> by: Jeff http://www.blog.sethroberts.net/2008/07/12/fannie-mae-and-the-black-swan/#comment-195746 Thu, 24 Jul 2008 01:03:42 +0000 http://www.blog.sethroberts.net/2008/07/12/fannie-mae-and-the-black-swan/#comment-195746 I was just witnessing congressional spending at its finest when it bailed out Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac as well as all those folks who were dumb enough to get in over their heads on mortgages when I realized what was happening. We are now losing our ability to hold ourselves individually accountable for our actions. Collateral damage is the ability to hold others accountable as well. Individual bankruptcy, stomach staples, misbehaved children at restaurants, public profanity, credit card debt and other excesses that are largely caused by the lack of individual self control are entry points for collective controls over everyone’s’ lives. Those of use who are responsible are left exposed to unnecessary controls, laws, and limits on our freedom. Now on to the collateral damage – we can no longer hold companies (unless you are an oil company), government, or groups accountable for their terrible lack of control either. When are we going to hold the US Congress and members of either party responsible for ANYTHING? Last I checked they made the laws that allowed the current banking and real estate crisis possible (besides the dumb individuals). They are also the same group who thinks that those of us who have behaved responsibly should be taxed on some of our hard earned 401K savings – no kidding. How about the companies who thought sourcing everything to China was a great idea for costs, now we have lost numerous jobs – where is the outcry about China’s human rights violations. Lastly, where is the press? Where is the in depth analysis of the cost of oil and the real reason for the supply side issues, or the pollution caused by third world countries. I see so much written negative about the United States it amazes me how we gloss over far more significant violators on this planet and give them a free pass. Did you know that China is shutting down factories up wind of Beijing prior to the Olympics so it does not appear too polluted? When are we as Americans going to say enough and hold individuals and the groups to which they belong accountable? I was just witnessing congressional spending at its finest when it bailed out Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac as well as all those folks who were dumb enough to get in over their heads on mortgages when I realized what was happening. We are now losing our ability to hold ourselves individually accountable for our actions. Collateral damage is the ability to hold others accountable as well. Individual bankruptcy, stomach staples, misbehaved children at restaurants, public profanity, credit card debt and other excesses that are largely caused by the lack of individual self control are entry points for collective controls over everyone’s’ lives.

Those of use who are responsible are left exposed to unnecessary controls, laws, and limits on our freedom.

Now on to the collateral damage – we can no longer hold companies (unless you are an oil company), government, or groups accountable for their terrible lack of control either. When are we going to hold the US Congress and members of either party responsible for ANYTHING? Last I checked they made the laws that allowed the current banking and real estate crisis possible (besides the dumb individuals). They are also the same group who thinks that those of us who have behaved responsibly should be taxed on some of our hard earned 401K savings – no kidding. How about the companies who thought sourcing everything to China was a great idea for costs, now we have lost numerous jobs – where is the outcry about China’s human rights violations. Lastly, where is the press? Where is the in depth analysis of the cost of oil and the real reason for the supply side issues, or the pollution caused by third world countries. I see so much written negative about the United States it amazes me how we gloss over far more significant violators on this planet and give them a free pass. Did you know that China is shutting down factories up wind of Beijing prior to the Olympics so it does not appear too polluted?

When are we as Americans going to say enough and hold individuals and the groups to which they belong accountable?

]]> by: Ian Marion http://www.blog.sethroberts.net/2008/07/12/fannie-mae-and-the-black-swan/#comment-192731 Thu, 17 Jul 2008 06:11:54 +0000 http://www.blog.sethroberts.net/2008/07/12/fannie-mae-and-the-black-swan/#comment-192731 I read both books and enjoyed them. NNT's message is I think, simple. Do not take the "experts" at face value; the best laid plans often fail due to unpredictable outside circumstances. As you pointed out Seth NNT is right when it comes to Fannie Mae, full stop! I read both books and enjoyed them. NNT’s message is I think, simple. Do not take the “experts” at face value; the best laid plans often fail due to unpredictable outside circumstances. As you pointed out Seth NNT is right when it comes to Fannie Mae, full stop!

]]> by: seth http://www.blog.sethroberts.net/2008/07/12/fannie-mae-and-the-black-swan/#comment-192022 Tue, 15 Jul 2008 12:31:02 +0000 http://www.blog.sethroberts.net/2008/07/12/fannie-mae-and-the-black-swan/#comment-192022 Very nice quote, Levinson. Very nice quote, Levinson.

]]> by: c. http://www.blog.sethroberts.net/2008/07/12/fannie-mae-and-the-black-swan/#comment-191839 Mon, 14 Jul 2008 21:07:56 +0000 http://www.blog.sethroberts.net/2008/07/12/fannie-mae-and-the-black-swan/#comment-191839 Generally agree with Dennis, here. Don't know that I would call Fooled or Black Swan "unreadable" -- they read relatively easily and the writing style (if not the tone) is compelling. They're "unreadable" in the same way that cheez whiz in "inedible." It's technically edible, but lacks nutritional value, tastes bad, and hurts your stomach later. While I agree w/ Seth's point that little things have big implications, I see a real difference between Seth's example, which suggests a concrete relationship or effect, and suggests actions to test or exploit it. Taleb's thesis in Fooled and Black Swan, are, as near as I can tell: "Shit happens. If you can manage to bet on it (or insure against it), you might make money." And while Taleb had two books to spell out the concrete implications of his thesis and test them, he didn't. Instead he spent a lot of words railing against percieved lesser intelligences and making up loopy new buzzwords. Generally agree with Dennis, here. Don’t know that I would call Fooled or Black Swan “unreadable” — they read relatively easily and the writing style (if not the tone) is compelling. They’re “unreadable” in the same way that cheez whiz in “inedible.” It’s technically edible, but lacks nutritional value, tastes bad, and hurts your stomach later. While I agree w/ Seth’s point that little things have big implications, I see a real difference between Seth’s example, which suggests a concrete relationship or effect, and suggests actions to test or exploit it. Taleb’s thesis in Fooled and Black Swan, are, as near as I can tell: “Shit happens. If you can manage to bet on it (or insure against it), you might make money.” And while Taleb had two books to spell out the concrete implications of his thesis and test them, he didn’t. Instead he spent a lot of words railing against percieved lesser intelligences and making up loopy new buzzwords.

]]> by: Levinson http://www.blog.sethroberts.net/2008/07/12/fannie-mae-and-the-black-swan/#comment-191821 Mon, 14 Jul 2008 18:09:16 +0000 http://www.blog.sethroberts.net/2008/07/12/fannie-mae-and-the-black-swan/#comment-191821 William James, in Lecture I of Pragmatism (1907) wrote: <em>Whatever universe a professor believes in must at any rate be a universe that lends itself to lengthy discourse. A universe definable in two sentences is something for which the professorial intellect has no use. No faith in anything of that cheap kind!</em> William James, in Lecture I of Pragmatism (1907) wrote:

Whatever universe a professor believes in must at any rate be a universe that lends itself to lengthy discourse. A universe definable in two sentences is something for which the professorial intellect has no use. No faith in anything of that cheap kind!

]]> by: seth http://www.blog.sethroberts.net/2008/07/12/fannie-mae-and-the-black-swan/#comment-191773 Mon, 14 Jul 2008 13:00:15 +0000 http://www.blog.sethroberts.net/2008/07/12/fannie-mae-and-the-black-swan/#comment-191773 "Matchbook cover"? Here's something that fits on <em>half</em> a matchbook cover: Faces in the morning push an oscillator that controls mood. Little things can have big implications. “Matchbook cover”? Here’s something that fits on half a matchbook cover: Faces in the morning push an oscillator that controls mood. Little things can have big implications.

]]> by: John S. http://www.blog.sethroberts.net/2008/07/12/fannie-mae-and-the-black-swan/#comment-191759 Mon, 14 Jul 2008 10:42:00 +0000 http://www.blog.sethroberts.net/2008/07/12/fannie-mae-and-the-black-swan/#comment-191759 I agree wholeheartedly with Dennis. The substantive content in "Fooled by Randomness" would fit on a matchbook cover, with room left over. Having been fooled once, I decided to skip "The Black Swan". Is it anything more than a rehash of his first book? I agree wholeheartedly with Dennis. The substantive content in “Fooled by Randomness” would fit on a matchbook cover, with room left over.

Having been fooled once, I decided to skip “The Black Swan”. Is it anything more than a rehash of his first book?

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